The Curious Case of Josh Smith

          Josh Smith is a forward for the Los Angeles Clippers of the National Basketball League.  You probably knew that already.  Josh Smith also has had a tendency to take really inefficient long midrange shots throughout his career.  You might have known that too.  However, throughout his career, Smith has been seen as a talent with incredible potential, but he just hasn't been able to put it all together.

Credit: http://cbssports.com/images/visual/whatshot/USATSI_8710469.jpg

              Smith will be entering his 13th NBA season after originally being drafted 17th overall by Atlanta in 2004.  He was drafted right out of high school, right before J.R. Smith was taken by the (at the time) New Orleans Hornets.  Almost immediately after being drafted, Josh Smith was a starter, and even an NBA Slam Dunk Champion his second season, 2005.  He also was the fastest player to 500 and 1,000 blocks (age-wise).  In spite of these successes, Smith has never been an all-star.
              In spite of never quite reaching superstar levels, Smith has still had a very successful career and earned a lot of money playing basketball.  In reality though, what has been stopping him from reaching the superstar level?
              The inclination to shoot deep midrange shots is well known.  Smith is great at taking the ball to the rack, as evidenced by his slam dunk championship and generally high percentage inside the paint.  However, beyond the iffy shot selection, two things work against Smith that aren't always looked at.
               First, Smith is a downright poor free-throw shooter.  He has a career ft% of 63.3%, which is only 6% above the notoriously bad free-throw-shooting Dwight Howard (Dwight Howard stats).  Mind you, that is still a decent amount, but Howard also makes a 12.4% higher fg% than Smith.  More bluntly, Smith is not all that much better than Dwight Howard at free throws, while having a low field goal percentage.  If you are going to be a rough shooter (45.5% fg%, 28.5% 3fg% career), you need to at least make free throws.  Smith's inability to make the freebies contributes to about a point less per game.  That point per game may not sound like much, but every little bit adds up.  It would be more than a point if he got to the line more, but again that circles back to taking deep midrange shots vs. driving inside.  Driving inside would be a more efficient shot and lead to more free throw attempts, which would in turn require better free throw shooting.  Smith's shot selection tends to be one big circle.
                Next, Smith tends to disappear in the playoffs.  He still scores, but it is a lot harder for him.  Mind you, on one level that makes sense; the playoffs imply tougher opponents, and in turn tougher defenses.  One would hope, however, that Smith would still be able to put together even borderline efficiency.  Instead, for his career Smith actually has averaged more shot attempts per game in the playoffs than in the regular season (13.3 playoffs vs. 13.0 regular season) with less makes (5.7 playoffs vs. 5.9 regular season).  His 3-point shot in particular gets even worse, going from a career regular season rate of 28.5% to 26.6% in the playoffs.  Smith's block rate also goes down a bit, which is very important because he really does make a living on the defensive end with iffy shooting rates.
               Now, I don't want it to seem like I'm saying Smith is a bad player.  In fact, he is a very good defensive player, especially in his early career when his athleticism allowed him to average over 2 blocks per game.  However, his potential rise to superstardom has been stunted by the well-known poor shot selection, as well as poor free-throw shooting and playoff shortcomings.  The prime of his career may be over, but it is not too late for Smith to turn it around.  He turns 30 in December, and has a great opportunity to get some minutes off the bench for the Clippers this season.  If he can carry over his defensive abilities, take better shots, and continue the streaky 3-point shooting from last year's playoffs with the Rockets, Smith very well could crack the starting lineup.  For a career that seemed to be only going upward, it may be his last chance to remain a rotation-caliber player.  We'll see how it shakes out.

             Do you believe Josh Smith will start for the Clippers this season?  Where do you think his career is heading now?  Please leave a comment down below answering either of these questions, or about something else entirely.  Do you think I did a good or bad job with this blog?  Let me know below!  See you next time!


Sources:
http://www.nba.com/history/all-star-weekend-slam-dunk-contest/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/2004
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2411/josh-smith